Chicago has seen some wild weather in recent months thanks to the ongoing Super El Niño, from sweltering heat to torrential rains.
Unfortunately, it’s looking like Windy City residents may have to wait a while before things return to normal.
The latest predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show El Niño could continue into spring 2027.
NOAA predicts “Strong-to-very strong” El Niño from January–March 2027
NOAA released an updated long-term El Niño outlook on October 8, predicting that the weather phenomenon could continue to strengthen through the end of 2026 and continue into spring 2027.
The data shows the 2026-27 El Niño could exceed the strength of all other El Niño events since 1950.
NOAA predicts the following probabilities of a record-breaking El Niño event over the coming months:
- September–November – 54%
- October–December – 83%
- November–January – 70%
“In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance),” said NOAA.
As NOAA outlines, a strong El Niño does not guarantee the effects most associated with the phenomenon, but it could make these outcomes more likely.
As for what the effects of a high-magnitude El Niño could mean for Chicago, outcomes may include warmer-than-average winter temperatures for much of the region.
The Windy City may also experience lower-than-normal snowfall totals, as in previous El Niño years like 1997–98 and 2015–16.
So in short, winter 2026-27 in the Windy City is shaping up to be unlike anything we’ve experienced in recent history. Expect the unexpected, Chicago!
