Fall in Chicago is in full swing, and the temperatures are finally beginning to reflect it, with daily highs sitting around the 60-degree mark.
With the air cooling, let’s address the question on everyone’s mind—when will Chicago see its first freezing temperatures of the season and the return of “Chiberia”?
Here’s what data from the National Weather Service (NWS) can tell us about the Windy City’s cold weather timeline.
Chicago’s first freeze timeline
When will the thermometer reach 32 degrees or lower in Chicago for the first time this season?
According to data from the NWS, temperatures will most likely reach the freezing point sometime over the next month.
The earliest-ever recorded first freeze came on September 22 in 1995, with the latest-ever happening on November 24 of 1931.
On average, the first freeze at Chicago’s O’Hare airport occurs on October 19, based on weather data from 1991-2020.
Meanwhile, the majority of the city sees its first freeze between October 21 and November 30, while the lakefront sees its first freeze between October 27 and November 5.
This fall in Chicago, the first freeze could come later, however, amid the ongoing Super El Niño.
NWS predictions indicate the Chicago region will see warmer-than-normal temperatures now through December.
Long-range predictions from AccuWeather show highs between the mid-60s and low 70s over the coming week, and lows between 50 and 60 degrees.
On October 19, predictions show a high of 58 degrees and a low of 47 degrees. Monthly predictions from AccuWeather don’t show a reading of 32 degrees until November 16.
This would mark a diversion from 2025, when Chicago saw its first freeze and snow on November 9, according to the Chicago Tribune.
After November 16 point, Chicago could see an even steeper thermometer drop, with overnight temps reaching the 20s.
So while nothing is set in stone, it seems likely that Chicago won’t record its first freezing point until sometime in November of 2026.
This is good news for those who love the fall weather.
We could have an extra few days or even weeks of crisp autumn conditions before it’s time to break out the winter parkas and brace the extreme cold.
Be sure to stay tuned for more updates as El Niño continues to bring wacky weather to Chicago!
