The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its latest climate predictions for the remainder of 2026, suggesting a strong El Niño pattern in the Northern Hemisphere.
But what exactly is El Niño and what does the pattern mean for Chicago?
Here’s a weather refresher and a breakdown of the data.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño refers to a climate pattern during which above average temperatures develop in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean for a typical period of 9-12 months, according to NOAA.
El Niño usually forms every 3-5 years, and can have a big impact on weather in North America.
The phenomenon causes the Pacific jet stream to shift further south of its neutral position.
When El Niño occurs, it can create warmer, more arid conditions in the Northern United States, and cooler, wetter conditions in the deep south.
El Niño likely to emerge soon, says NOAA
NOAA released a report on Thursday, May 14, indicating the El Niño weather phenomenon has an 82% chance of emerging in the Northern Hemisphere between May and July of 2026.
According to NOAA’s most recent findings, subsurface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific increased for the sixth consecutive month between April and May 2026.
Additonally, NOAA’s models predict a 96% chance of El Niño continuing in the Northern Hemisphere through Winter 2026-27.
What El Niño means for Chicago
As for what El Niño means for Chicago—it’s complicated. A strong El Niño pattern can result in warmer, drier winter conditions in the Windy City.
For a historical example, we need only look to the winter of 1982-83, when North America experienced one of its strongest El Niño events on record, according to data from Golden Gate Weather Services.
That winter brought with it the warmest Christmas Day ever in Chicago, with a high of 64 degrees, according to the National Weather Service.
However, as NOAA notes, it ultimately remains up in the air what impact El Niño will have on Chicago in 2026, as the pattern is highly volatile.
NOAA states that instances of El Niño always differ, and that “Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”
So while El Niño is likely to emerge soon, its true effects are subject to change and will only be come clearer with time.
So stay tuned for future updates, and be sure to visit NOAA to learn more about El Niño.
